The geopolitics of the energy transition – changing tectonics
26 JAN 2022
Fundamental changes are taking place in the global energy system that will have significant geopolitical implications. These changes will affect almost all countries and will have wide-ranging consequences on economies and society. The geopolitical balance will shift and the dynamics of relationships between countries will also be transformed. Major oil-exporting countries will have to review their economic models and what it means for stability. On the other hand, many countries with large renewable potentials – whether high solar or wind power – still belong to the classic developing countries. How can the risk of geopolitical upheaval be prevented?
Let us start at the beginning. What do we mean by energy transition? At its most basic level, the new energy transition is a shift from hydrocarbons to electricity. To put it simply: our world order has been based on oil. That is gradually changing. The importance of electrons in the overall energy supply chain will continuously increase. The use of electricity is already surging. It provides about 20 percent of energy today, and will have to rise to 50 percent by 2050, if countries are to meet their climate commitments according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Electrification will be a decisive answer for net-zero.
The socio-economic impacts
The pace and scale of the transition has already shot past the most optimistic projections. Another reason for the fast-track transition is that the energy sector holds the key to averting the effects of climate change. We have reached a tipping point and the conversation around clean energy is higher on the agenda than ever. Currently, 14 members of the G20 had announced net zero targets by mid-century, covering 61 percent of global greenhouse emissions, according to Climate Transparency Report, 2021. How fairly and how fast the energy revolution happens is the biggest challenge of our time.
Properly designed and implemented, energy transition will ease progress towards all 17 of the Sustainable Development Goals, not just the goal that relates to universal, affordable and clean energy. It will enhance energy independence for most countries and thus the number of energy-related conflicts is likely to fall. It will also promote prosperity and job creation; improve food and water security; and enhance sustainability and equity.
For example, the US and EU’s plans for green recovery will give a boost to several clean energy technologies. Same for China which is investing heavily in renewable energy technologies and cross-border interconnectors.
As countries prepare for their target of net-zero emissions by 2050, some regions such as the Middle East, are planning to trade more green fuels, such as hydrogen or green Ammonia. This gives rise to a whole new constellation of markets and bilateral trade relationships. We could see a new class of energy exporters that may emerge.
At the same time, the energy transition will generate new challenges. A rapid shift away from fossil fuels could create a financial shock. Workers and communities that depend on fossil fuels maybe hit adversely. That is why we need to develop technologies to enhance a smooth transition.
Countries leading the energy transition race
In the new energy world, technology will be an important differentiating factor. There will be three ways for countries to exert influence in the new system. One is by exporting electricity or green fuels. Another is by controlling the raw materials used for clean energy technologies, such as lithium and cobalt. The third is by gaining an edge in technologies such as electric vehicle batteries. With renewable resources so readily available.
How to transport this energy and ensure it reaches people in an efficient and affordable way is a big piece of the puzzle. Hence, trading power will also be on the rise with an increase in cross-border electricity interconnection projects.
For example, our engineers helped construct Nemo Link, the first high-voltage (HV) interconnector between Belgium and the UK, which can supply up to 1,000 megawatts of clean electricity. It is also one of the several HV transmission links connecting Britain’s electricity grid to the national grids of neighboring countries. In the middle of this transformation lie power grids, the true enabler of energy transition.
Opportunity for transformational change
To ensure the success of a global net-zero approach, we need also to understand some aspects:
1) Regions might take longer on the fossil fuel transition because of the specifics of their development or their energy landscape.
2) Legacy energy infrastructure will need attention and adequate investment.
3) We need also to tackle socio-economic aspects, so we do not end up having winners and losers.
For regions such as the Middle East, which is blessed with natural resources, but also has abundant renewable resources, the transition could be an economic gift. We see many countries working to leapfrog technologies based on fossil fuels with ambitious economic diversification plans.
We are actively supporting the countries of the region through piloting new projects to accelerate the energy transition. A few examples include our partnership with Dubai Electricity and Water Authority and Expo 2020 to construct the region’s first solar-driven hydrogen electrolysis facility. The project also sets an example in public-private partnerships. We also joined forces Masdar, the Abu Dhabi Department of Energy, Etihad Airways, German Lufthansa, Marubeni Corporation and Khalifa University to produce aviation eFuel. This is in addition to other agreements recently signed in both Egypt and Oman to develop their hydrogen economies.
Despite difficulties, the energy transition will ultimately move the world in the right direction by addressing climate change, combating pollution, promoting prosperity, as well as sustainable development. But it requires new frameworks, cross-sector partnerships between public and private sectors, and stronger international cooperation to underwrite our common journey.
Written by,
Dr. Christian Bruch, President and CEO, Siemens Energy
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04 SEP 2024
Cooling our world is warming our planet. Here’s how we can turn down the heat.
As global temperatures climb, we are ramping up our use of air conditioning. The trouble is, the machines cooling our spaces are significant contributors to global warming. The UAE is rising to the challenge, combining ancient wisdom with avant-garde thinking.
Summer 2024 has brought unprecedented global heat, and new records are being set as the mercury rises. As more of us rely on air conditioning to help keep our homes, offices and public spaces comfortable, our contribution to global warming is rising, too: air conditioning causes around 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Enter sustainable cooling. The UN and the International Energy Agency estimate that climate-friendly cooling could help us avoid up to 460 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions over the next four decades. That’s equivalent to more than ten times India’s current annual GHG emissions.
Cooling our lives without warming our planet
Sustainable cooling encompasses a variety of measures we can take right now to help limit the impact of growing global demand for space cooling. These include improving the efficiency of existing cooling systems, innovation to develop more sustainable cooling technologies and measures that lower ambient temperatures in buildings and urban environments.
Crucially, our response to this challenge must be twofold: as well as upgrading and reimagining the infrastructure which enables today’s cooling systems, we have an opportunity to reduce the need for cooling by designing and building cooler environments in the first place.
Reimagining age-old techniques
The Middle East can draw on a long tradition of ‘passive’ architecture and design techniques which can significantly reduce heat. Rather than fighting the elements by deploying elaborate technologies to counter sweltering temperatures with artificial cold, this approach takes advantage of local conditions. The aim is to work in harmony with the existing environment to reduce the temperature of buildings, without the need for power. In the UAE, techniques include shading devices, double glazing and positioning buildings to channel natural ventilation. Buildings can also be designed with higher thermal mass, so they self-regulate by absorbing daytime heat and releasing it at night. Outside, green roofing, evaporative cooling using water features, and the application of light color coatings have all stood the test of time - and the elements.
In Abu Dhabi, for instance, traditional techniques are being reimagined for today’s needs. The sustainable urban community of Masdar City boasts a modern spin on an ancient wind tower or barjeel, which captures the prevailing wind, channeling it down past cooling mist jets into a central courtyard below. The structure, which designers say can reduce the temperature by 5 degrees celsius at street level, is built with metallic, open sides, to help visitors understand the passive design. Just a few steps away, this time-honored Middle Eastern technique also helps keep Siemens employees cool at the tech company’s innovative regional headquarters.
Elsewhere in Masdar City, the striking Al Bahr Towers combine traditional mashrabiya-style shading with 21st-century technology. The towers are adorned with over 1,000 computerized hexagonal shades which can move and adjust throughout the day, providing shade when the sun is at its strongest.
Efficiency and innovation
The Middle East is also pioneering innovative ways to future-proof buildings, rolling out new approaches to sustainable cooling. Among these, Tabreed operates 89 district cooling plants across the UAE and GCC, using chilled water from centralized energy plants to cool whole neighborhoods via underground pipes. The company is also developing ground-breaking geothermal energy which currently meets 10% of Masdar City's cooling needs. Geothermal cooling, which harnesses energy from beneath the Earth’s surface, reduces energy needs by up to 70% compared with traditional air conditioners.
AI is another tool in the race to make cooling sustainable, with companies like Hyperganic combining algorithmic engineering with industrial 3D printing and engineering to iterate at scale. Partnering with Abu Dhabi-based Strata Manufacturing, Hyperganic has created heat exchangers with radically different structures that could lead to residential air conditioning units that consume 10% of the energy that a conventional device uses.
Progress is being made to reduce leakage rates from traditional air conditioning units, mainly through better design and installation practices. In the UAE, Mubadala Investment Company’s aerospace unit Strata has teamed up with European partners to develop the world’s most energy-efficient residential air-conditioning system in the Emirates.
The hunt is also on to find more climate-friendly solutions than hydroflourocarbons (HFCs), including hydrocarbon refrigerants and ammonia. In keeping with international commitments, the UAE plans to freeze the consumption and production of HFCs in 2028. When coupled with enhanced energy-efficiency measures, these can help reduce both direct emissions from refrigerant leakages and indirect emissions from the energy used to power cooling units.
Sustainable cooling on the climate agenda
As hosts of the COP28 climate conference in 2023, the UAE placed sustainable cooling firmly on the agenda. Chief among outcomes was the Global Cooling Pledge, which saw 60 countries commit to reducing the climate impact of the cooling sector. Spearheaded by the Cool Coalition, a global network dedicated to more climate-friendly cooling, the pledge aims to reduce cooling related emissions by 68% by 2050 and to increase the global average efficiency of new air conditioners by 50% by 2030 at the latest.
Described by the IEA as one of the most critical energy issues of our time, cooling is growing increasingly prominent within the climate change conversation. The shift to more sustainable cooling for our warming world is a formidable challenge. While the planet heats up, we need to ensure we’re not throwing fuel on the fire of global warming while we try to cool down.
By merging ancient wisdom with cutting-edge innovation, we can reduce our reliance on energy-intensive cooling systems and work with the planet to create cooler environments. The Middle East, with its rich history of passive cooling techniques and ambitious climate goals, is uniquely positioned to lead this shift. But only through concerted global efforts to improve cooling efficiency, develop climate-friendly alternatives and prioritize sustainable urban planning can we hope to escape this vicious cycle and ensure a habitable planet for generations to come.
15 AUG 2024
The future of water
Covering most of the planet’s surface, water is seemingly one of the most abundant substances on earth. But today, many communities and countries are facing a usable water crisis.
While millions of people worldwide use hundreds of litres of water a day, around 3.6 billion people – almost half of humanity – survives without access to safe, clean water.
More than an inconvenience, access to clean water is essential for human health, growth, wellbeing and safety, so much so that it has been recognized as a human right. A lack of it can be devastating: 1 million people die each year from lack of access to clean water and sanitation, and every two minutes a child dies from a water-borne disease. Women and girls are particularly affected when clean water is in short supply, often tasked with hauling water over long distances for communities, taking them away from education and exposing them to violent attacks or environmental threats.
Without intervention, the next few decades could make this a reality for more and more people worldwide.
With increasing demand from water-intensive industries like agriculture, rising temperatures and shrinking water reserves, there is a real threat that there won’t be enough water for humanity’s needs. It’s a problem that has had experts ringing alarm bells since before 2017.
With access to water so critical, and the problem so pressing, why isn’t water management demanding more global attention? Is anything being done to bring it into wider conversations about sustainability? On today’s trajectory, what’s the future of water?
The future of water as it stands
Two opposing trends paint a grim picture of the future. While global water use is set to skyrocket, global water supplies are already stressed.
To keep up with demand, experts predict that global water use will rise 20-50% as a result of human-driven climate change and overuse. So much groundwater has been pumped out of the earth that it has tilted the planet’s axis.
Heavy use of water is compounded by mismanagement: without policies, infrastructure and conservation efforts, existing water sources are being polluted, wasted or drained. Worldwide, different challenges in managing water are causing water stress for communities: from outdated infrastructure to conflict to overuse, it’s clear that alongside preserving our existing sources of water, understanding how we use what we have as a global community is just as important.
On this trajectory, developing countries will experience water insecurity over longer periods and with greater intensity, while supplies to major industries become strained. Over the next two decades, the increasing water stress will lead to a rise in related inequality, political instability, growing disease and potential sources of conflict in the most affected nations.
How can we change this trajectory?
Top priorities for cleaner, healthier water
As the global community attempts to address the challenge of building a more sustainable future, the issue of water has garnered more attention. While the subject of water has been historically absent from international sustainability efforts like the Paris Agreement, both COP27 and COP28, held in Dubai in one of the world’s most arid regions, recognized water as a priority.
As governments, institutions and communities examine their relationship with water and their future needs, there is an overall consensus that the battle for water must be fought on all fronts. As a complex issue with multiple causes, it calls for many solutions across government, education, technology and industry, all working in tandem.
Individuals – from ordinary households to decision makers at the helm of major corporations – must gain a better understanding of the impact of water usage and consumption. Awareness campaigns like the USA’s Save Our Water can help change behavior and influence change at the individual level. At the national level, governments can leverage policy to support better understanding and use of water management.
Backed by funding, recent innovations in water management technology have the potential to help restore and manage water. Emerging AI and big data technologies, in particular, hold much promise. A pilot project in the Ramotswa Aquifer between South Africa and Botswana, for example, is harnessing AI to analyze water levels in the drought-prone area, helping identify patterns and inform water management decisions. AI-assisted geospatial analysis is also helping smallholders in Ethiopia to identify shallow well locations, something that promises to significantly improve crop yield and access to drinking water.
While new technologies have the potential to help solve significant challenges, prioritizing cost-effective and culturally compatible solutions remains key. Obstacles like supply chain coordination, training and distribution also need to be overcome for effective implementation. Introducing innovative financial instruments like water credits (akin to carbon credits) could incentivize investment in water-related initiatives and contribute to sustainable water management practices worldwide.
Climate Adaptation and Mitigation
The issue of water is inextricably tied to the wider climate emergency. Meeting the Paris goals by reducing carbon emissions, implementing overall climate mitigation measures and adapting to today’s changes are a key part of addressing the water crisis and building safeguards for the future.
Climate adaptation measures can be integrated into water systems and infrastructure and are essential for building resilience to climate change-induced water scarcity and extreme weather events. This involves implementing strategies such as rainwater harvesting, enhancing water storage capacity, and improving flood management systems to mitigate the impacts of climate change and ensure reliable access to water.
More broadly, general climate mitigation efforts are fundamental for addressing the underlying causes of the global water crisis. By mitigating climate change, we can help stabilize weather patterns, reduce the intensity of droughts and floods, and safeguard water resources for future generations.
Water is a critical resource, and its future is in our hands. To help people access water today and ensure water security for tomorrow, the global community must recognize, invest and mobilize to create better water management practices and safeguard the precious water we have remaining. The task is complex, but vital. We must come together to solve the problems we face for a greener, more sustainable future.