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How focusing on the future can help navigate current uncertainties

06 APR 2023

Marc Antaki, Head of Portfolio Strategy, Mubadala

As business leaders and global investors navigate an increasingly complex landscape, never has it been more important to maintain a long-term perspective and understand megatrends; the powerful and large-scale structural shifts that are shaping our world.

Difficult financial conditions, recessionary pressures, supply chain disruptions, energy and food security concerns, and a host of other issues are challenging business leaders like never before. They must look beyond the day-to-day and focus on the future transformative changes that will have the biggest impact on the way we live, work, and invest.

For long-term investors like Mubadala, understanding megatrends can help identify growth opportunities, mitigate risk, and capitalize on emerging trends that have the potential to disrupt traditional industries and create new ones. We adopt a forward-leaning investment strategy and allocate capital in line with our long-term views on megatrends, to shape our portfolio and generate long-term sustainable performance while delivering positive impact to current and future generations.

As part of Mubadala’s periodic strategy review, we regularly test our convictions about the trends we see to ensure that we stay ahead of the curve. This year, to help better understand market perceptions from East to West and across generations, we commissioned a research study with Bloomberg Media. The study gathered and compared opinions from 1,800 people from the West (United States, United Kingdom, France) and the East (India and China), as well as the UAE. In those countries we looked at three distinct groups – seasoned investors, engaged and informed Millennials, and members of Generation Z who represent the latest and largest cohort as workers and consumers. We looked specifically into five megatrends that are affecting economic, social and environmental outcomes – namely climate change, big demographic shifts especially aging societies and generational shifts, digital and disruptive technologies, urbanization and inequality.

According to the findings, climate change represents the greatest risk to the well-being of the world, outstripping all others. It impacts health, degrades the environment and harms business performance, underlining the case for greater levels of investment in the energy transition to low-carbon economies. Our study shows the climate is also seen by all groups polled as the biggest opportunity for companies to change the world for the better.

Mubadala invested early in the energy transition, for example, establishing Masdar in 2006 which has grown to become one of the world’s most prominent renewable energy companies. Masdar now operates in over 40 countries developing, commercialising and deploying renewable energy solutions, with a goal to provide 100GW of renewable power by 2030.

Digital technologies were rated by survey respondents as the megatrend that will have the most relevance to investors and businesses. Across the world, technology acts as an enabler, supporting people, businesses and society to develop solutions to tackle environmental concerns and help eradicate food scarcity, poor sanitation, lack of access to education, poverty and other health and social issues.

Mubadala invests heavily in breakthrough technological innovation including semi-conductors, Artificial Intelligence, advanced mobility and autonomous driving, and increasing digitalization across sectors. The same also applies to our work with Hub71, which is supporting Abu Dhabi in positioning itself as a global hub for startups and innovation, including in climate tech, fintech and healthtech, to name a few.

Across age groups there was concern about demographic shifts impacting the quality of life, the talent pool, poverty levels and public-sector spending. But investors see demographic shifts as the most important of the megatrends to their business today. Ageing societies are producing challenges for some countries, and helping to drive new business opportunities and ways of working.

Mubadala leverages the demographics trend by investing in health, with a focus on wellness and longevity, as well as new ways of living and changing patterns of consumption with a focus on experiences, sustainability and tech-compatibility. In healthcare, Mubadala has supported Abu Dhabi in developing a robust, world-class healthcare sector with the creation of Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi, as well as a broader network of world-class healthcare facilities that provide a wide range of services across more than 60 medical specializations. This has helped to address the specialist healthcare needs of Abu Dhabi and the UAE, reducing the need for people to travel abroad for treatment.

Overall, our study reinforced the belief that companies that factor megatrends into their business strategies typically benefit from improved overall performance. Indeed, respondents expect businesses to play a big role in responding to megatrends. India and the UAE feel this most strongly at 95 percent and 91 percent respectively, followed by the US where the number was 85 percent.

Mubadala invests in megatrends by identifying investment opportunities that align with our long-term investment approach and our focus on generating sustainable returns over time. We continue to deploy capital locally and internationally with best-in-class partners who shares similar beliefs and convictions and with whom we can help accelerate growth and create a positive impact for current and future generations. Here in the UAE, at the centre between East and West, we embrace partnering with link-minded leaders to foster collaboration and help to find pragmatic solutions to tackle some of the world most pressing challenges.

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25 JUL 2024

Lessons from the Aral Sea: from desolation to revival

As COP29 organizers in Azerbaijan prepare to host world leaders for high-stakes climate negotiations, across the Caspian Sea two Central Asian nations are working together to address an ecological crisis.   

The Aral Sea, straddling the borders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, was the world’s fourth largest lake in 1960. But in only six decades it has shrunk to just 10% of its former size. Fish and bird populations have collapsed. Local people endure ever harsher weather, difficulties growing crops, and debilitating health conditions brought on by a rapidly changing climate. The disappearance of this vast body of water and its catastrophic environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the region is an alarming allegory for the climate crisis at the global level.   

But there's hope. Recent progress in water management, both in the region and elsewhere, may help the Aral Sea recover, and teach us critical lessons about safeguarding our natural resources.

Unprecedented decline  
  
The decline of the Aral Sea has happened over just one lifetime. 

Local people have fond memories of swimming in its waters. It boasted a thriving fishing industry. That all changed in 1959, when the Soviet Union brought industrialized cotton production to the region.

A water-intensive crop, cotton was grown using extremely inefficient irrigation practices which diverted water from the Aral’s tributaries. Some of these waterways lost half their volume, and were polluted with fertilizers and harmful pesticides. By 2007, the lake had dropped to just 10% of its original size, and salinity had risen from 14 grams per liter to over 100 – around three times that of normal seawater.  

Once thriving lakeside towns and villages found themselves in the middle of a desert, their fishing boats half-buried and rusting in the sand.  

The retreat of the lake also exposed 54,000 km2 of salt and dust, contaminated with pesticides, which is now blown across the region by increasingly strong winds. This causes a wide range of debilitating health conditions among humans, including kidney failure, anemia and intestinal cancer. Respiratory conditions affect children up to 200 kilometers away.   

Restoring the Aral Sea was seen by many as a lost cause. And major challenges remain - from continued reliance on outdated cotton-farming practices, to regional tensions over how to share the water of the lake and its tributaries. But investment in infrastructure and the resilience of local communities have begun to pull it back from the brink. 



Reviving the Aral  


The completion of the Kokaral Dam in 2005, financed by the World Bank, was a vital turning point, offering the Aral Sea hope at its lowest ebb. The dam has led to an 18% increase in the volume of the northern part of the lake in Kazakhstan. Several fish species now thrive, as do the fishermen: Within ten years, their annual catch grew fivefold. A second World-Bank-financed dam nearby is set to continue the transformation of the local ecosystem and bring the entire reservoir’s temperature and salinity levels closer to 1960 levels, encouraging biodiversity.

Across the border in Uzbekistan, mass planting of saxaul shrubs is underway, in partnership with USAID. In just four years, these robust plants, which act as the first line of defense against desertification, have helped restore over half of the country’s three million hectares of degraded land.  

Encouragingly, these measures are being matched by impactful water management reforms and investment at the governmental level. Uzbekistan is reconstructing irrigation networks, modernizing water management systems and introducing drought-resistant crops. Farming subsidies for water-saving agricultural technologies could reduce consumption by 40-50% and mineral fertilizers by 25-30%. The impact has already been immense. From just 28,000 hectares of farmland in 2018, these technologies now cover 1 million hectares - representing 27 percent of the total irrigated area. The government intends to double this by the end of 2025. 

International collaboration 

These country initiatives feed into the efforts of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), founded 30 years ago by the five nations of Central Asia. A unique collaborative effort, the fund is the most important platform for regional cooperation, encouraging member states to work together to share transboundary water and address the environmental and socio-economic problems of the Aral Sea basin. Kazakhstan is hoping to use its chairmanship of the fund to formalize an agreement to regulate the flow of the Syr Darya, one of the Aral’s main tributaries, helping avoid droughts in downstream countries. 

In addition, the UN-backed Multi-Partner Human Security Trust Fund for the Aral Sea Region aims to channel financing into innovative solutions for this complex challenge. In 2021, the UN General Assembly declared the Aral Sea region a 'zone of environmental innovations and technologies', to encourage international research and scientific collaboration in the area. 

It is unlikely that the Aral Sea will ever return to its 1960 level, but recent progress has handed this struggling waterway a vital lifeline. The sea’s rapid bounce back over just two decades shows the vast potential of water management measures, for the local ecosystem and the people whose livelihoods depend on it.  


Hope for the future 

The plight of the Aral Sea is an alarming glimpse into the planet’s future if we do not manage our precious natural resources responsibly. The lessons we can draw from both its destruction and revival apply everywhere.  

Rivers, lakes and seas are a vital lifeline that billions depend on for food, livelihoods and power. Their steward governments have a responsibility to work together to share the benefits fairly and sustainably. That means supporting farmers with efficient water infrastructure and providing the right incentives to help them switch to more sustainable crops and practices. It means working collaboratively to ensure a regular flow from source to sea to stabilize regional climates.  

While water management may not be taking center stage at COP29, it is critical to the wider goals of the Paris Agreement. It might just bring our struggling waterways back to life.  
 
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23 JUL 2024

Abu Dhabi's economic growth: how ADDED is building a diversifying and sustainable future

By His Excellency Rashed Abdulkarim Al Blooshi, Undersecretary, Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development

Today, Abu Dhabi is undergoing an economic transformation, with the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development (ADDED) driving forward a vision that will future-proof the Emirate for generations to come. Charting a course toward a more sustainable future, Abu Dhabi is leveraging its advanced infrastructure and seamless synergy between government entities and the private sector. ADDED is relentlessly working to enhance economic diversification and build sustainable growth in a way that ensures Abu Dhabi’s economy benefits all who live and work across the Emirate. 

Abu Dhabi’s visionary leadership has long acknowledged the need to diversify its economy, shift to a knowledge-based one, and build a truly sustainable future. The Emirate’s multi-faceted approach is nurturing key growth sectors, investing in emerging tools and technologies and fostering innovation across the entire economic ecosystem. 

A diversified economy and renewable energy

Renewable energy is a critical component of a sustainable future and one of ADDED’s key areas of focus. ADDED supports research and development in this field, attracting investments and encouraging the growth of clean energy companies. Similarly, it recognizes the importance of advanced technologies as a driver of economic growth. By fostering a tech-friendly ecosystem, ADDED is attracting and retaining skilled professionals, positioning Abu Dhabi as a hub for innovation. 

ADDED has collaborated with several local and international partners to extend the Emirate’s sustainability efforts further. This significant shift toward a non-oil economy is the key contributor to the Emirate’s economy, and today the non-oil sectors comprise almost 54% of Abu Dhabi’s GDP.

A circular economy

At the heart of ADDED's sustainability strategy lies the circular economy concept, which it has introduced through a comprehensive framework for the industrial sector. This framework will significantly reduce industrial waste and promote responsible resource utilization. The industrial circular economy policy framework sets ambitious targets, including a 50% reduction in industrial process waste, equivalent to at least 40,000 tonnes annually. It will encompass key sectors, ensuring 100% compliance by 2030, with the plastic manufacturing sector achieving 100% compliance by 2025. This transition benefits the environment and opens avenues for cost reduction and enhanced efficiency within businesses.

A vibrant SME scene

To ensure a balanced, inclusive and sustainable business ecosystem, ADDED fosters an entrepreneurial environment that enables the development of innovative solutions particularly those focused on environmental sustainability and social impact. This is achieved through incubators and accelerators that provide support and resources to startups in strategic sectors, while prioritizing those that address environmental challenges, promote resource efficiency and contribute to the Emirate’s circular economy. SMEs comprise over 90% of businesses in Abu Dhabi, employing more than 46% of the workforce and contributing more than 42% to Abu Dhabi’s non-oil GDP, which further underscores the Emirate’s nurturing business environment and strong support for SMEs. 

Smart and sustainable transportation

Led by ADDED, Abu Dhabi has been heavily involved in transforming the transportation sector by adding smarter and more sustainable means of transportation. In Q2 2024, ADDED announced investment opportunities worth AED11 billion in transportation industries, especially after the launch of the Smart and Autonomous Vehicle Industry (SAVI) cluster in 2023. 

It has also inked several agreements to boost the manufacturing and assembly of electric commercial vehicles (ECVs) in Abu Dhabi and enhance innovation within the Emirate’s automotive, mobility and transportation sectors. ADDED is leveraging the benefits of public-private partnerships to deliver future-proofed infrastructure, renewable energy projects and knowledge-sharing initiatives. 

Building a Sustainable Future

Abu Dhabi's economic transformation is a work in progress, but the commitment to sustainability is evident in ADDED's initiatives. It lays the groundwork for a prosperous and environmentally responsible future for the Emirate by promoting diversification, innovation, and a circular economy. 

Abu Dhabi has acknowledged that the transition to a sustainable economy requires a skilled and adaptable workforce. This is where the Golden Visa program plays a crucial role in attracting and retaining top-tier professionals and sustainability thought leaders from around the world. This visa ensures that the brightest minds are contributing to the Emirate's vision for a greener and more sustainable future, particularly those with expertise in clean technologies, renewable energy and environmental sciences. 

These experts bring with them the skills, knowledge and innovative thinking necessary to drive forward Abu Dhabi's sustainability goals, making the Golden Visa an integral part of the Emirate’s transformative journey toward a sustainable future. 

As ADDED continues its efforts, Abu Dhabi further cements its position as a regional and global leader, demonstrating that economic success and environmental responsibility can go together. 
 
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16 JUL 2024

Q & A: Pure Harvest CEO Sky Kurtz on sustainability as a competitive advantage and why food security is really about water

Coming from a humble background, Sky Kurtz, CEO and Co-founder of Pure Harvest Smart Farms, built a lucrative career in private equity. He then reevaluated priorities and became a serial entrepreneur, most recently pioneering sustainable agriculture in the United Arab Emirates. With a focus on innovative cultivation systems in harsh natural environments, Kurtz shares insights into the convergence of sustainability, agriculture, and the crucial role of water in securing our future.    

How does sustainability align with your strategy?  

Sustainability is foundational both to our company’s vision and to our business strategy. Pure Harvest is unique in that we are actually an energy company, taking sunlight and converting it into calories as efficiently as possible, seeking to achieve the maximum output per unit of useful photonic energy, while minimizing the capital and resources needed to do so. 

We use technology to make resource-efficient food production possible, making us more sustainable. This is something we can be proud of, and it’s a value our consumers increasingly care about. We see sustainability as a source of competitive advantage: to reduce the need for fertilizer or chemical pesticides, for example, we're using technology and renewable resources like natural predators to improve the health and quality of our food, at once benefiting the planet and our profitability. 

What do you see as the most important opportunity to focus on in the sustainability space?  

There is a tremendous focus on carbon today, and rightfully so; however, sustainability is also about food, water and waste, and carbon’s role in climate change is negatively affecting all of the above. In terms of both scale and urgency, water is the most important, and ultimately water is food, as roughly two-thirds of the world's freshwater is used in food production. 

Without enough potable water and water-efficient farming methods, we will have widespread famine and disaster. These problems aren't well understood or talked about, but I think they will become a louder and louder siren, drawing attention to ramifications for national security, food supply, trade policy and economics, and fundamentally both the quality and sustainability of life itself. 

How are you involving stakeholders in your sustainability efforts?  

We're engaging every stakeholder that will listen to drive a compelling and clear narrative on how solutions like ours can be part of the future of food. Last year, we onboarded Dr. Josef Schmidhuber as Chief Sustainability Officer, who carries a Nobel Prize for his work which helped to make climate change a household topic. He is now developing our first-ever sustainability report, to make sure we’re in line with international standards and that we can credibly demonstrate a healthy ESG record to our many stakeholders.  

Being part of the solution at the government level at home is also important to us, and we’ve done our best to support the UAE’s vision and goals for sustainability. I was part of the delegation of Her Excellency Mariam Almheiri, the former UAE Minister of Climate Change and Environment, at COP26 where the UAE earned the privilege of hosting COP28. I’ve also had the opportunity to serve as a member of a national committee focused on the adoption of agritech for food security, promulgating solutions and shaping policies for more sustainable food production in the UAE.  

How are you fostering innovation in sustainability?

In 2016, one of our co-founders, Robert Kupstas, was working with the International Renewable Energy Agency and looking at water saving solutions for the Middle East. When he saw that we use roughly two thirds of our freshwater to farm less than 15% of our food in the GCC, he realized that to solve the water security problem, you also had to solve the food production problem. His idea was to build bridging technologies to reinvent proven, large-scale greenhouse solutions in the GCC’s challenging climates.  

Since then, we’ve continued to innovate. Currently, we’re developing AI tools that make food production more efficient by automating climate management and improving our yield forecasts– tools we plan to offer to other farmers in the future. We also innovate in ways that might seem simple at first, but have a huge potential impact. For example, in a partnership with Nadec, a large dairy producer in Saudi Arabia, we co-located our farms with a 30-megawatt solar power installation. Our collective power demand is large enough to enabIe utility-scale solar deployment. 

In what other areas do you see sustainability-related opportunities?  


Enacting new government regulations is a valuable opportunity to facilitate sustainable development – but we’re very lucky to operate in one of the most forward-thinking government environments. The European Commission’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is a great example of a regulatory innovation that reduces emissions by leveling the playing field of domestic carbon policies so local companies are not disadvantaged. 

Financial innovation is also key. Emerging markets will need tools and services to develop and trade carbon credits and provide rigorous auditing and carbon accounting, and to then support companies to sell carbon credits in global markets so they can access capital. I think these private market companies will be necessary to make possible a carbon market that will function at scale across every sector.  

There is also a lot of space for innovation in food waste, which is estimated at between 17% and 33%, globally. I think innovations in logistics and cold storage will go a long way to reduce waste, and in turn reduce the amount we need to produce. 

Finally, alternative proteins hold a lot of promise. For example, precision fermentation is a novel solution wherein microorganisms like yeast are engineered to produce specific proteins, such as those found in meat or dairy. It holds promise as an alternative protein solution due to its efficiency, sustainability, and potential to address environmental and ethical concerns associated with traditional animal agriculture.