Understanding population patterns can help us tackle climate change
14 SEP 2023
Climate change and demography share deep ties but their relationship is more complex than it might seem. Population growth is just one side of a story that, when we dig a little deeper, reveals some cause for optimism in the face of adversity.
There are three times more people on Earth today than there were in the 1950s. With a population of eight billion that looks set to continue growing into the middle of this century, we often think about the negative environmental impact of population growth when we consider the relationship between demography and climate change. Whilst the impact of this rapid expansion has been undeniable, it’s not the only side to the story.
The connection between population patterns and climate change is a complex matrix that includes not only population growth, but also food systems, urbanization and displacement. Negativity dominates the headlines, but there are more than a few causes for hope in this story. Ahead of COP28 and the vital decisions that need to be taken to slow the impacts of climate change, exploring the intricate connections between population dynamics and climate change uncovers reasons for optimism and pathways towards a more sustainable future.
The urban paradox
Rapid urbanization is a defining characteristic of our time. Over half of the world’s population lives in cities, 80% of GDP is generated in urban areas, and cities account for over 70% of global CO2 emissions. This concentration of people, wealth and resource consumption paints a picture of cities as major emitters and, while this is true, the reality is more complex. Urbanization increases household carbon footprints in developing countries, but studies suggest that the inverse can be true in developed economies thanks to more efficient energy and transport infrastructure. Turku and Dijon, for example, are lowering household and municipal emissions through the installation of quadruple glazed windows and solar panels.
Designing more sustainable urban areas with efficient public transportation and green infrastructure could significantly reduce global emissions and improve quality of life, but only if access to these innovations is equitable for all countries. Furthermore, the sheer number of people and resources in cities means they can serve as hubs of innovation, fostering the development and implementation of sustainable technologies and policies. Cities are some of our largest polluters, but they have the potential to be the source of our greatest sustainability successes.
Reclaiming the climate refugee narrative
Extreme weather events, rising sea levels and ecological disruption are creating climate refugees. According to UNHCR, 21.5 million people have been displaced by weather-related sudden onset disasters – like floods and wildfires – every year since 2008.
But there could be a glimmer of hope. This adversity is compelling governments and individuals to find solutions, develop sustainable practices, and create stronger, more inclusive societies. Marshallese community members and artists, for example, are strengthening ties to their traditional culture and fostering national pride by resisting the narrative that they are helpless in the face of climate change. And climate refugees in Bangladesh are building new lives in climate-resilient areas like Mongla that provide them with jobs, housing and a renewed sense of purpose. Displacement due to climate change will challenge our societies in new ways, but the movement of people has always been a fact of human existence. We can work to create positive outcomes for those affected by it.
Feeding the future
Addressing the nexus between population patterns, climate change and food security is at the top of the sustainability agenda. As many as 811 million people faced hunger in 2020 and that number is continuing to rise. Extreme weather events – like flooding in Pakistan and drought in the Horn of Africa – are threatening more people with starvation through the destruction of crops and livestock, while the environmental impact of food production continues to grow: agriculture accounts for a quarter to a third of global emissions.
Solving world hunger and reducing emissions from food production seem to be totally at odds but there’s significant potential for sustainability success. Eco-friendly farming practices – such as agroforestry, organic farming, and precision agriculture – can help mitigate emissions while enhancing productivity and resilience. Increasing attention is also being given to the sustainable agricultural practices of indigenous peoples, paving the way for greater social cohesion and inclusion of historically marginalized communities. The USDA, for example, is engaged in a national project to revive the indigenous American practice of planting several different crops alongside each other, and new research suggests that indigenous farming knowledge is key to the creation of sustainable food systems. Embracing sustainable agriculture has the potential to increase food security and reduce pressure on natural resources in the same stroke, allowing us to feed future generations.
Optimism amidst challenges
The complex interconnectedness of demography and climate change presents formidable challenges and demands our immediate attention, but the opportunities for positive change are also great. Governments, businesses, and individuals are recognizing the urgency of addressing these issues and are taking action. COP28 will provide an historic opportunity to enable a unified approach to global sustainability efforts and a chance to accelerate positive change.
Optimism is not only possible but necessary if we are to effectively tackle the challenges of climate change and shifting populations together. In many cases, a solution to one is a solution to another – the pursuit of sustainability is inevitably the pursuit of a healthier, happier and more prosperous society
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25 JUL 2024
Lessons from the Aral Sea: from desolation to revival
The Aral Sea, straddling the borders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, was the world’s fourth largest lake in 1960. But in only six decades it has shrunk to just 10% of its former size. Fish and bird populations have collapsed. Local people endure ever harsher weather, difficulties growing crops, and debilitating health conditions brought on by a rapidly changing climate. The disappearance of this vast body of water and its catastrophic environmental and socioeconomic impacts on the region is an alarming allegory for the climate crisis at the global level.
But there's hope. Recent progress in water management, both in the region and elsewhere, may help the Aral Sea recover, and teach us critical lessons about safeguarding our natural resources.
Unprecedented decline
The decline of the Aral Sea has happened over just one lifetime.
Local people have fond memories of swimming in its waters. It boasted a thriving fishing industry. That all changed in 1959, when the Soviet Union brought industrialized cotton production to the region.
A water-intensive crop, cotton was grown using extremely inefficient irrigation practices which diverted water from the Aral’s tributaries. Some of these waterways lost half their volume, and were polluted with fertilizers and harmful pesticides. By 2007, the lake had dropped to just 10% of its original size, and salinity had risen from 14 grams per liter to over 100 – around three times that of normal seawater.
Once thriving lakeside towns and villages found themselves in the middle of a desert, their fishing boats half-buried and rusting in the sand.
The retreat of the lake also exposed 54,000 km2 of salt and dust, contaminated with pesticides, which is now blown across the region by increasingly strong winds. This causes a wide range of debilitating health conditions among humans, including kidney failure, anemia and intestinal cancer. Respiratory conditions affect children up to 200 kilometers away.
Restoring the Aral Sea was seen by many as a lost cause. And major challenges remain - from continued reliance on outdated cotton-farming practices, to regional tensions over how to share the water of the lake and its tributaries. But investment in infrastructure and the resilience of local communities have begun to pull it back from the brink.
Reviving the Aral
The completion of the Kokaral Dam in 2005, financed by the World Bank, was a vital turning point, offering the Aral Sea hope at its lowest ebb. The dam has led to an 18% increase in the volume of the northern part of the lake in Kazakhstan. Several fish species now thrive, as do the fishermen: Within ten years, their annual catch grew fivefold. A second World-Bank-financed dam nearby is set to continue the transformation of the local ecosystem and bring the entire reservoir’s temperature and salinity levels closer to 1960 levels, encouraging biodiversity.
Across the border in Uzbekistan, mass planting of saxaul shrubs is underway, in partnership with USAID. In just four years, these robust plants, which act as the first line of defense against desertification, have helped restore over half of the country’s three million hectares of degraded land.
Encouragingly, these measures are being matched by impactful water management reforms and investment at the governmental level. Uzbekistan is reconstructing irrigation networks, modernizing water management systems and introducing drought-resistant crops. Farming subsidies for water-saving agricultural technologies could reduce consumption by 40-50% and mineral fertilizers by 25-30%. The impact has already been immense. From just 28,000 hectares of farmland in 2018, these technologies now cover 1 million hectares - representing 27 percent of the total irrigated area. The government intends to double this by the end of 2025.
International collaboration
These country initiatives feed into the efforts of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), founded 30 years ago by the five nations of Central Asia. A unique collaborative effort, the fund is the most important platform for regional cooperation, encouraging member states to work together to share transboundary water and address the environmental and socio-economic problems of the Aral Sea basin. Kazakhstan is hoping to use its chairmanship of the fund to formalize an agreement to regulate the flow of the Syr Darya, one of the Aral’s main tributaries, helping avoid droughts in downstream countries.
In addition, the UN-backed Multi-Partner Human Security Trust Fund for the Aral Sea Region aims to channel financing into innovative solutions for this complex challenge. In 2021, the UN General Assembly declared the Aral Sea region a 'zone of environmental innovations and technologies', to encourage international research and scientific collaboration in the area.
It is unlikely that the Aral Sea will ever return to its 1960 level, but recent progress has handed this struggling waterway a vital lifeline. The sea’s rapid bounce back over just two decades shows the vast potential of water management measures, for the local ecosystem and the people whose livelihoods depend on it.
Hope for the future
The plight of the Aral Sea is an alarming glimpse into the planet’s future if we do not manage our precious natural resources responsibly. The lessons we can draw from both its destruction and revival apply everywhere.
Rivers, lakes and seas are a vital lifeline that billions depend on for food, livelihoods and power. Their steward governments have a responsibility to work together to share the benefits fairly and sustainably. That means supporting farmers with efficient water infrastructure and providing the right incentives to help them switch to more sustainable crops and practices. It means working collaboratively to ensure a regular flow from source to sea to stabilize regional climates.
While water management may not be taking center stage at COP29, it is critical to the wider goals of the Paris Agreement. It might just bring our struggling waterways back to life.
23 JUL 2024
Abu Dhabi's economic growth: how ADDED is building a diversifying and sustainable future
Today, Abu Dhabi is undergoing an economic transformation, with the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development (ADDED) driving forward a vision that will future-proof the Emirate for generations to come. Charting a course toward a more sustainable future, Abu Dhabi is leveraging its advanced infrastructure and seamless synergy between government entities and the private sector. ADDED is relentlessly working to enhance economic diversification and build sustainable growth in a way that ensures Abu Dhabi’s economy benefits all who live and work across the Emirate.
Abu Dhabi’s visionary leadership has long acknowledged the need to diversify its economy, shift to a knowledge-based one, and build a truly sustainable future. The Emirate’s multi-faceted approach is nurturing key growth sectors, investing in emerging tools and technologies and fostering innovation across the entire economic ecosystem.
A diversified economy and renewable energy
Renewable energy is a critical component of a sustainable future and one of ADDED’s key areas of focus. ADDED supports research and development in this field, attracting investments and encouraging the growth of clean energy companies. Similarly, it recognizes the importance of advanced technologies as a driver of economic growth. By fostering a tech-friendly ecosystem, ADDED is attracting and retaining skilled professionals, positioning Abu Dhabi as a hub for innovation.
ADDED has collaborated with several local and international partners to extend the Emirate’s sustainability efforts further. This significant shift toward a non-oil economy is the key contributor to the Emirate’s economy, and today the non-oil sectors comprise almost 54% of Abu Dhabi’s GDP.
A circular economy
At the heart of ADDED's sustainability strategy lies the circular economy concept, which it has introduced through a comprehensive framework for the industrial sector. This framework will significantly reduce industrial waste and promote responsible resource utilization. The industrial circular economy policy framework sets ambitious targets, including a 50% reduction in industrial process waste, equivalent to at least 40,000 tonnes annually. It will encompass key sectors, ensuring 100% compliance by 2030, with the plastic manufacturing sector achieving 100% compliance by 2025. This transition benefits the environment and opens avenues for cost reduction and enhanced efficiency within businesses.
A vibrant SME scene
To ensure a balanced, inclusive and sustainable business ecosystem, ADDED fosters an entrepreneurial environment that enables the development of innovative solutions particularly those focused on environmental sustainability and social impact. This is achieved through incubators and accelerators that provide support and resources to startups in strategic sectors, while prioritizing those that address environmental challenges, promote resource efficiency and contribute to the Emirate’s circular economy. SMEs comprise over 90% of businesses in Abu Dhabi, employing more than 46% of the workforce and contributing more than 42% to Abu Dhabi’s non-oil GDP, which further underscores the Emirate’s nurturing business environment and strong support for SMEs.
Smart and sustainable transportation
Led by ADDED, Abu Dhabi has been heavily involved in transforming the transportation sector by adding smarter and more sustainable means of transportation. In Q2 2024, ADDED announced investment opportunities worth AED11 billion in transportation industries, especially after the launch of the Smart and Autonomous Vehicle Industry (SAVI) cluster in 2023.
It has also inked several agreements to boost the manufacturing and assembly of electric commercial vehicles (ECVs) in Abu Dhabi and enhance innovation within the Emirate’s automotive, mobility and transportation sectors. ADDED is leveraging the benefits of public-private partnerships to deliver future-proofed infrastructure, renewable energy projects and knowledge-sharing initiatives.
Building a Sustainable Future
Abu Dhabi's economic transformation is a work in progress, but the commitment to sustainability is evident in ADDED's initiatives. It lays the groundwork for a prosperous and environmentally responsible future for the Emirate by promoting diversification, innovation, and a circular economy.
Abu Dhabi has acknowledged that the transition to a sustainable economy requires a skilled and adaptable workforce. This is where the Golden Visa program plays a crucial role in attracting and retaining top-tier professionals and sustainability thought leaders from around the world. This visa ensures that the brightest minds are contributing to the Emirate's vision for a greener and more sustainable future, particularly those with expertise in clean technologies, renewable energy and environmental sciences.
These experts bring with them the skills, knowledge and innovative thinking necessary to drive forward Abu Dhabi's sustainability goals, making the Golden Visa an integral part of the Emirate’s transformative journey toward a sustainable future.
As ADDED continues its efforts, Abu Dhabi further cements its position as a regional and global leader, demonstrating that economic success and environmental responsibility can go together.
16 JUL 2024
Q & A: Pure Harvest CEO Sky Kurtz on sustainability as a competitive advantage and why food security is really about water
How does sustainability align with your strategy?
Sustainability is foundational both to our company’s vision and to our business strategy. Pure Harvest is unique in that we are actually an energy company, taking sunlight and converting it into calories as efficiently as possible, seeking to achieve the maximum output per unit of useful photonic energy, while minimizing the capital and resources needed to do so.
We use technology to make resource-efficient food production possible, making us more sustainable. This is something we can be proud of, and it’s a value our consumers increasingly care about. We see sustainability as a source of competitive advantage: to reduce the need for fertilizer or chemical pesticides, for example, we're using technology and renewable resources like natural predators to improve the health and quality of our food, at once benefiting the planet and our profitability.
What do you see as the most important opportunity to focus on in the sustainability space?
There is a tremendous focus on carbon today, and rightfully so; however, sustainability is also about food, water and waste, and carbon’s role in climate change is negatively affecting all of the above. In terms of both scale and urgency, water is the most important, and ultimately water is food, as roughly two-thirds of the world's freshwater is used in food production.
Without enough potable water and water-efficient farming methods, we will have widespread famine and disaster. These problems aren't well understood or talked about, but I think they will become a louder and louder siren, drawing attention to ramifications for national security, food supply, trade policy and economics, and fundamentally both the quality and sustainability of life itself.
How are you involving stakeholders in your sustainability efforts?
We're engaging every stakeholder that will listen to drive a compelling and clear narrative on how solutions like ours can be part of the future of food. Last year, we onboarded Dr. Josef Schmidhuber as Chief Sustainability Officer, who carries a Nobel Prize for his work which helped to make climate change a household topic. He is now developing our first-ever sustainability report, to make sure we’re in line with international standards and that we can credibly demonstrate a healthy ESG record to our many stakeholders.
Being part of the solution at the government level at home is also important to us, and we’ve done our best to support the UAE’s vision and goals for sustainability. I was part of the delegation of Her Excellency Mariam Almheiri, the former UAE Minister of Climate Change and Environment, at COP26 where the UAE earned the privilege of hosting COP28. I’ve also had the opportunity to serve as a member of a national committee focused on the adoption of agritech for food security, promulgating solutions and shaping policies for more sustainable food production in the UAE.
How are you fostering innovation in sustainability?
In 2016, one of our co-founders, Robert Kupstas, was working with the International Renewable Energy Agency and looking at water saving solutions for the Middle East. When he saw that we use roughly two thirds of our freshwater to farm less than 15% of our food in the GCC, he realized that to solve the water security problem, you also had to solve the food production problem. His idea was to build bridging technologies to reinvent proven, large-scale greenhouse solutions in the GCC’s challenging climates.
Since then, we’ve continued to innovate. Currently, we’re developing AI tools that make food production more efficient by automating climate management and improving our yield forecasts– tools we plan to offer to other farmers in the future. We also innovate in ways that might seem simple at first, but have a huge potential impact. For example, in a partnership with Nadec, a large dairy producer in Saudi Arabia, we co-located our farms with a 30-megawatt solar power installation. Our collective power demand is large enough to enabIe utility-scale solar deployment.
In what other areas do you see sustainability-related opportunities?
Enacting new government regulations is a valuable opportunity to facilitate sustainable development – but we’re very lucky to operate in one of the most forward-thinking government environments. The European Commission’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is a great example of a regulatory innovation that reduces emissions by leveling the playing field of domestic carbon policies so local companies are not disadvantaged.
Financial innovation is also key. Emerging markets will need tools and services to develop and trade carbon credits and provide rigorous auditing and carbon accounting, and to then support companies to sell carbon credits in global markets so they can access capital. I think these private market companies will be necessary to make possible a carbon market that will function at scale across every sector.
There is also a lot of space for innovation in food waste, which is estimated at between 17% and 33%, globally. I think innovations in logistics and cold storage will go a long way to reduce waste, and in turn reduce the amount we need to produce.
Finally, alternative proteins hold a lot of promise. For example, precision fermentation is a novel solution wherein microorganisms like yeast are engineered to produce specific proteins, such as those found in meat or dairy. It holds promise as an alternative protein solution due to its efficiency, sustainability, and potential to address environmental and ethical concerns associated with traditional animal agriculture.